A Florida win would clinch the election for Obama. According to the LA Times, the Obama campaign feels that it can win Florida if enough registered Democrats actually get out and vote. On Thursday, Miami Dade County disclosed that Democrats had added 94,000 new voters since the first of the year, compared to 21,000 new Republican registrations. The key lies in getting out the vote, particularly in democrat rich South Florida.
Expect McCain and Palin to be pallin' around Florida in the next two weeks - it's make or break for them. McCain is in Miami today, wooing young voters at FIU. Melbourne is his next stop. Of note - the abundance of new democratic voter registrations could be offset by the GOP's abundant absentee ballots.
Obama’s strong showing in swing and formerly red states, gives him a decided advantage. He can reach the 270 threshold by winning Florida or by winning Colorado and Virginia, for example. But until enough of those states to break the 270 threshold are solidly Obama’s, the race remains undecided.
Florida is far from a sure thing for Obama. If the polls are accurate, Obama's lead in Florida approximates the margin of error. (Want to see how the electoral vote is shaking out, look at Real Clear Politics' interactive electoral college map.) Beyond winning the election, Obama needs a mandate to insure his ability to govern effectively and to counter what one writer called the "permanent smear campaign".
Can we relax now that we're ahead in the polls? To quote from an e-mail I just received, "The surest way to lose a race is to slow down with the finish line in sight." Lee went on to remind that Gore had a double digit lead in October 2000 and Kerry won the popular vote in 2004. Without the key states, we could lose the 2008 vote.
Joe Biden said on Thursday... "This campaign has fought for every inch, and now is not the time to take anything for granted. To get out the vote, we need to knock on hundreds of thousands of doors and make even more phone calls. This campaign has built the largest field operation in history, and we need to mobilize it in these remaining days to get every single voter to the polls on Election Day. Because that's what it comes down to -- counting every last vote."
What does this mean for Obama supporters? Florida organizers are focusing on getting out the vote. Live in another state? - the campaign makes it easy to call battleground states. Go to my.barackobama.com and volunteer to help and focus your energy on a battleground state. Barack Obama has built his campaign on grassroots support. THAT MEANS YOU.
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