will post again soon -

The Whole World was Watching

from SFGate

The Chronicle reports that Ulyssies Moore, 92, has waited his entire life for this election. "I never in my lifetime thought I would live long enough to see an African American become the president, even to be nominated by a major party," said the former World War II Buffalo soldier as he cast his vote Tuesday. "A soldier's eyes never cries, but my heart cried for joy when I cast my vote for Obama."

The world's heart cries for joy. What a moment.

President Obama!

Liking these odds

Betfair provides real-time betting odds (below). But first I have to get you smiling today, so watch this;

And MSNBC will have live results as they roll in;

Every Vote Counts

Homer's back, voting in Springfield.

Election eve poll analysis from fivethirtyeight.com

According to Nate Silver -

"With fewer than six hours until voting begins in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the national polling picture has cleared up considerably. Barack Obama is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory, in the race for the White House.

The national polls have all consolidated into a range of roughly Obama +7. That is right about where our model sees the race as well, giving Obama a 6.8 point advantage in its composite of state and national polling. Our model notes, however, that candidates with large leads in the polls have had some tendency to underperform marginally on election day, and so projects an Obama win of 6.0 points tomorrow.

Far more important, of course, is the race for 270 electors. It appears almost certain that Obama will capture all of the states won by John Kerry in 2008. Pennsylvania, while certainly having tightened somewhat over the course of the past two weeks, appears to be holding at a margin of about +8 for Obama, with very few remaining undecideds. Obama also appears almost certain to capture Iowa and New Mexico, which were won by Al Gore in 2000. Collectively, these states total 264 electoral votes, leaving Obama just 5 votes shy of a tie and 6 of a win.

Obama has any number of states to collect those 5 or 6 votes. In inverse order of difficulty, these include Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana. Obama is the signficant favorite in several of these states; winning any one of them may be fairly difficult for John McCain, but winning all of them at once, as John McCain probably must do, is nearly impossible.

McCain's chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or "Shy Tory" Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.

However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama's support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.

McCain's chances of victory are estimated at 1.9 percent, their lowest total of the year."

For the record

It is striking to consider, in this paradigm shifting election, that the dirty deeds of the GOP candidate have gotten so little coverage.

The sordid Keating 5 history got some coverage before and after the Obama campaign released a video on the subject at KeatingEconomics.com, but the story never got the traction it deserved, especially in the context of the economic meltdown.

Then there was the pesky revelation that McCain had Iran Contra ties.

And on October 24th, John Dinges revealed in the Huffington Post that; “John McCain, who has harshly criticized the idea of sitting down with dictators without pre-conditions, appears to have done just that. In 1985, McCain traveled to Chile for a friendly meeting with Chile's military ruler, General Augusto Pinochet, one of the world's most notorious violators of human rights credited with killing more than 3,000 civilians and jailing tens of thousands of others.” (Spanish language version.)

Yet to be questioned (to my knowledge) is McCain’s “heroic duty” in Vietnam, where he participated in an air war that blanket bombed North Vietnam.

The Obama campaign apparently decided not to confront McCain's misdeeds, perhaps determining that it would hurt the campaign more than it helped. Considering the nearly flawless conduct of the Obama campaign, I can only guess they made the right call.

Still, it is troubling to think that a presidential candidate can avoid facing up to such a record.

Obama's Quiet Hero - a sad day before triumph

Huffington Post links to live coverage of Obama talking about his grandmother.

Here's a page from the family "scrapbook";

Shades of 2000?

Fox reports Florida Voter information found on Interstate 4.

The Desperado does QVC

I've got to hand it to McCain - he can be funny as evidenced last night on SNL. There have been other funny bits that I haven't had a chance to post. If you haven't seen it, Sarah Palin in the Oval Office is a must see. Click on every item in the room. And doing homage to Evita, try this.

For those of us addicted to the polls, check out fivethirtyeight's analysis of what to expect on Tuesday. For more analyis of the prospects Tuesday, see the Washington Post or the Chicago Tribune who says McCain needs perfect day to best Obama.

Slate's Power Recap

From the Last Debate to the Final Week in Two Minutes

3 days to go - Making Every Vote Count

The LA Times reports that "voting rights watchdogs are sounding the alarm that a repeat of the Florida fiasco of 2000 could occur in any of a dozen battleground states."

The article cites the purging of 30,000 new registrations from Colorado's voter registry and 10,000 from Florida's, along with irregularities in other states.

The Times quoted Rick Haseen, a professor of election law at Loyola Law School, "I think we're going to see alot of problems, in part because some voters aren't going to find out until election day that they've been dropped from the rolls. I expect this to happen in Florida, where they had a very aggressive, no match, no vote policy."

The Miami Herald explained the "no match" policy - "The ID check spits out voter registrations that don't match driver's license or social security records. It has left voters on a list dominated by blacks, Hispanics and Democrats in a legal limbo -- unless they supply elections officials with additional proof they are who they say they are."

Under Florida state law, voters whose registrations have been questioned can be forced to cast a "provisional" ballot on Nov. 4th, that will only be counted if the voter can provide proper identification by 5 p.m. on Nov. 6.

Some counties, including Miami Dade, are providing regular ballots to "no match" voters if they show up at the polls with matching identification. But this is not required under the law.

Counties that still refuse to grant a regular ballot are required, under the Florida Secretary of State Kurt Browning's latest reading of the law, to allow "no-match" voters to turn in photocopies of their ID at the polls.

With new registrations favoring the Democrats by 2 - 1, disenfranchisement of a large numbers of voters would appear to be an obstruction of fair voting practice by Republican voting officials using the cover of law. With so much attention paid to the issue this time around, election officials have an opportunity to prove their fairness by demonstration of fair practice. And it might just improve their political future.

5 days to go - Get Serious! Part II

Need material to counter the fear mongering in the swing states? Fight the Smears and Under the Radar have all the documentation you need to counter each specific attack.

Bill Clinton came out to rally with Obama last night and addressed the GOP's smear of the week - "Don't tell me about redistribution... What Senator Obama has is a plan that works from the bottom up."

These are good rational arguments, but when reality and the ridiculous get so confused, I turn to Jon Stewart, and today I'll add Stephen Colbert, for their ability to boil the news down to its essence. See the previous post.

5 days to go - Get Serious!

Jon Stewart interviewed Obama last night, from Ft. Lauderdale.

But isn't he a socialist?

Colbert didn't stop there. He invited the Socialist Party candidate for President to the show.

All right, so how serious is this?

Down to business - we need your help to win Florida;

Take a few minutes to contact everyone you know in Blue States. Send them the letter below - customized with their names;

Dear old Friend,

We need your help in Florida. Obama leads in some polls by a small margin, is tied in another and trails in yet another. The state is decidedly undecided.

With only 5 days to go – you can help us win Florida’s 27 electoral votes, enough to decide the election. Here’s what we need to get out the vote;

If you have only a few minutes each day;

Call five for Obama And tell all your friends to call 5.

If you have more time;

Go to Neighbor to Neighbor. Here you can choose who and where you want to call.

Choose your battleground state campaign!

Call voters in New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, Oregon, Virginia and West Virginia. Or help us get out the early vote in Florida.

Need information to persuade a voter? – go to Makefloridacount.com and choose an article or video from the archive. There is something for everyone there – you will find endorsements from conservatives, Republicans, Catholics, Rabbis, Chicago Jews, Rednecks4 Obama, labor, Nobel prize winners, news organizations.

Are you a student? go to the AdoptFive college edition.

Reports of early voting show very low student turnout. Check out the next video, personalize it here with your friend's name and send it to all your friends and student voters in the swing states.

Please pass the word to all your friends in the Blue States. We haven't won yet.

Obama will win if we get everyone out to vote. We need your help to make it happen.

For hope and change,

Your friend

Here are the action links for your letter.

Adopt 5 - http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/adoptfivefl/

Neighbor to Neighbor - http://my.barackobama.com/page/votercontact/landing

It's your fault video - http://www.cnnbcvideo.com/taf.shtml?id=&nid=Pu5F0XSYwwst4zz1q1oLODQ0MTk5MQ--

"I didn't vote for Obama" - a voter's story

by kentuckyscott (found on DailyKos) Oct 20, 2008

"I'm a middle-class white guy living in Jacksonville, Florida. I've got a wife and two kids. Because the kids had no school today, I took a vacation day from work, and took the kids downtown to vote early. Fifty-nine minutes later, two smiling children and I proudly sported "I Voted" stickers.

But I didn't vote for Obama.

I voted for my ancestors, who believed in the promise of this country and came with with nothing as immigrants.

I voted for my parents, who taught in the public schools for decades.

I voted for Steve, an acquaintance of mine from Kentucky. (Killed by an IED two years ago in Iraq).

I voted for Shawn, another who's been to Iraq twice, and Afghanistan once, and who'll be going back to Afghanistan again soon -- and whose family earned eleven bucks a month too much to qualify for food stamps when the war started.

I voted for April, the only African-American girl in my high school -- it was years before it occurred to me how different her experience of our school must have been.

I voted for my college friends who are Christian, Jewish, Mormon, and yes -- Muslim.

I voted for my grandfathers, who worked hard in factories and died too young.

I voted for the plumber who worked on my house, because I want him to get a REAL tax break.

I voted for four little angels from Birmingham.

I voted for a bunch of dead white men who, although personally flawed, were willing to pledge their lives, fortunes, and sacred honor, and used a time of great crisis to expand freedom rather than suspend it.

I voted for all those people and more, and I voted for all of you, too. But mostly, I voted selfishly. I vote for two little kids, one who has ballet in an hour, and once who has baseball practice at the same time. I voted for a world where they can be confident that their government will represent the best that is in this country, and that will in turn demand the best of them. I voted for a government that will be respected in the world. I voted for an economy that will reward work above guile. I voted for everything I believe in.

Sure, I filled in the circle next to the name Obama, but it wasn't him I was voting for -- it was every single one of us, and those I love most of all.

Who else is there to vote for?"

Be sure to read the previous post for another beautiful story from Ohio.

Forget Joe the Plumber, I Like Mike

Here's a clipping from Ben Smith's column at Politico, quoting an e-mail from Cincinnati -

"Upon arriving at the Hamilton County Board of Elections in Cincinnati to vote early today I happened upon some friends of my mother's — three small, elderly Jewish women. They were quite upset as they were being refused admitance to the polling location due to their Obama T-Shirts, hats and buttons. Apparently you cannot wear Obama/McCain gear into polling locations here in Ohio.... They were practically on the verge of tears.

After a minute or two of this a huge man (6'5", 300 lbs easy) wearing a Dale Earnhardt jacket and Bengal's baseball cap left the voting line, came up to us and introduced himself as Mike. He told us he had overheard our conversation and asked if the ladies would like to borrow his jacket to put over their t-shirts so they could go in and vote. The ladies quickly agreed. As long as I live I will never forget the image of these 80-plus-year-old Jewish ladies walking into the polling location wearing a huge Dale Earnhardt racing jacket that came over their hands and down to their knees!

Mike patiently waited for each woman to cast their vote, accepted their many thanks and then got back in line (I saved him a place while he was helping out the ladies). When Mike got back in line I asked him if he was an Obama supporter. He said that he was not, but that he couldn't stand to see those ladies so upset. I thanked him for being a gentleman in a time of bitter partisanship and wished him well.

After I voted I walked out to the street to find my mother's friends surrouding our new friend Mike — they were laughing and having a great time. I joined them and soon learned that Mike had changed his mind in the polling booth and ended up voting for Obama. When I asked him why he changed his mind at the last minute, he explained that while he was waiting for his jacket he got into a conversation with one of the ladies who had explained how the Jewish community, and she, had worked side by side with the black community during the civil rights movements of the '60s, and that this vote was the culmination of those personal and community efforts so many years ago. That this election for her was more than just a vote ... but a chance at history.

Mike looked at me and said, "Obama's going to win, and I didn't want to tell my grandchildren some day that I had an opportunity to vote for the first black president, but I missed my chance at history and voted for the other guy."

The World Vote

From the Economist;

Every One Counts!

Personalize this message and send it on here.

Colin X - Black militant with ties to terrorists

For the best analysis of the GOP campaign this week, I recommend Jon Stewart's discourse on the real America and radical militant supporters of Obama -

Meanwhile, all us fake Americans better get out there and win some votes!

Again?

from my e-mail;

"Today was the first day of early voting in South Florida and it was a disaster. My husband went to downtown Miami, and he couldn't vote because the machines were not working properly. Then, he went to Coral Gables, same story. Finally he decided to ask for a absentee ballot."

And from the Guardian's report on today's release of the Pew report -

Election Preview 2008: What if we had an election and everyone came?

"Eight years after the uncovered problems in the 2000 election and more than five years after the creation of the Help America Vote Act of 2002, millions of Americans will head to the polls on November 4 in what many are predicting will be the highest turnout election in recent memory.

"Like the infamous Nor'easter that sank the Andrea Gail, another perfect storm may be brewing, only this one has the potential to combine a record turnout with an insufficient number of poll workers and a voting system still in flux."

Find Obama Rallies in Florida

Want to see the candidates in person? Use "Map the Candidates" in the Organizer's Toolbox (left column) to find an event near you. Obama will appear in Lake Worth (10:30AM) and Miami (2:45 PM)

Powell on patriotism, judgement, Americanism

Powell's seven minute endorsement covered a point avoided by liberals and conservatives alike - what if Obama was a Muslim as some Republicans repeatedly charge? Would that be un-American or cast him in cahoots with terrorists?

“Well, the correct answer is, he is not a Muslim, he’s a Christian, he’s always been a Christian,” said Powell.

“But the really right answer is, what if he is?," said Powell. "Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer's no, that's not America."

See also, Colin Powell invokes image of fallen soldier.

In Ike's Words, why some conservatives like Obama

Colin Powell's endorsement today adds muscle to the growing conservative chorus for Obama.

President Eisenhower’s words in his televised farewell to the nation seem even more prescient today than they did last February when his granddaughter, Susan Eisenhower, reprised them for her pre-nomination endorsement of Barack Obama.

"As we peer into society's future, we must avoid the impulse to live only for today, plundering, for our own ease and convenience, the precious resources of tomorrow. We cannot mortgage the material assets of our grandchildren without risking the loss also of their political and spiritual heritage. We want democracy to survive for all generations to come, not to become the insolvent phantom of tomorrow."

“Today we are engaged in a debate about these very issues," said Susan Eisenhower. “I am not alone in worrying that my generation will fail to do what my grandfather's did so well: Leave America a better, stronger place than the one it found.” In the spirit of the crossover voters who were inspired by Ike’s “pledge to bring change to Washington and by the prospect that he would unify the nation”, his granddaughter, a lifelong Republican, pledged to work to get Obama elected.

Susan Eisenhower’s was the first, to my knowledge, of what has become a flood of endorsements and/or defections by conservatives and Republicans.

Wick Allison, former publisher of the National Review (considered the intellectual center of the American Conservative movement), endorsed Obama in September, before the economy crashed. He said McCain's brand of “conservatism, which is not conservative at all, has produced financial mismanagement, the waste of human lives, the loss of moral authority, and the wreckage of our economy that McCain now threatens to make worse.”

"Barack Obama is not my ideal candidate for president. (In fact, I made the maximum donation to John McCain during the primaries, when there was still hope he might come to his senses.) But I now see that Obama is almost the ideal candidate for this moment in American history. I disagree with him on many issues. But those don’t matter as much as what Obama offers, which is a deeply conservative view of the world. Nobody can read Obama’s books or listen to him speak without realizing that this is a thoughtful, pragmatic, and prudent man. It gives me comfort just to think that after eight years of George W. Bush we will have a president who has actually read the Federalist Papers.

Most important, Obama will be a realist. I doubt he will taunt Russia, as McCain has, at the very moment when our national interest requires it as an ally. The crucial distinction in my mind is that, unlike John McCain, I am convinced he will not impulsively take us into another war unless American national interests are directly threatened.

“Every great cause,” Eric Hoffer wrote, “begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.” As a cause, conservatism may be dead. But as a stance, as a way of making judgments in a complex and difficult world, I believe it is very much alive in the instincts and predispositions of a liberal named Barack Obama."

There are many more, to be sure, but in the interest of brevity, I will end with excerpts from the Chicago Tribune endorsement, their first for a Democrat since the paper's founding in 1847. (All three mentioned here deserve to be read in full.)

“Many Americans say they're uneasy about Obama. He's pretty new to them. 
We can provide some assurance. We have known Obama since he entered politics a dozen years ago. We have watched him, worked with him, argued with him as he rose from an effective state senator to an inspiring U.S. senator to the Democratic Party's nominee for president.

"We have tremendous confidence in his intellectual rigor, his moral compass and his ability to make sound, thoughtful, careful decisions. He is ready."

The Tribune expected more of McCain and endorsed his nomination. Now they say,

"McCain failed in his most important executive decision. Give him credit for choosing a female running mate--but he passed up any number of supremely qualified Republican women who could have served. Having called Obama not ready to lead, McCain chose Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. His campaign has tried to stage-manage Palin's exposure to the public. But it's clear she is not prepared to step in at a moment's notice and serve as president. McCain put his campaign before his country...

"It may have seemed audacious for Obama to start his campaign in Springfield, invoking Lincoln. We think, given the opportunity to hold this nation's most powerful office, he will prove it wasn't so audacious after all. We are proud to add Barack Obama's name to Lincoln's in the list of people the Tribune has endorsed for president of the United States."

Look for more endorsements from Conservative and Republicans in the days to come in the section at the left titled "Conservative voices for Obama".

100,000 turn out for Obama in Missouri

Washington Post - "All I can say is, wow," said Obama, surveying the sea of supporters in Missouri, known as the bellwether state. His home state of Illinois was right across the muddy river.

Are you using the Organizer's Toolbox?

Here's an example, from Politifact.com (a St. Petersburg Times service), of what you can find in the Organizer's toolbox on the left side of the page;

Be sure to note what they say about Palin's assertion that she did nothing wrong in the Troopergate case.

The Fight for Florida or The Surest Way to Lose a Race

Once again, Florida is center stage in the fight for the White House. Recent articles on the battle for Florida's 27 votes include yesterday's Miami Herald, Shades of 2000, Florida Again too Close to Call and today's LATimes, Obama bets big on Florida turnout.

A Florida win would clinch the election for Obama. According to the LA Times, the Obama campaign feels that it can win Florida if enough registered Democrats actually get out and vote. On Thursday, Miami Dade County disclosed that Democrats had added 94,000 new voters since the first of the year, compared to 21,000 new Republican registrations. The key lies in getting out the vote, particularly in democrat rich South Florida.

Expect McCain and Palin to be pallin' around Florida in the next two weeks - it's make or break for them. McCain is in Miami today, wooing young voters at FIU. Melbourne is his next stop. Of note - the abundance of new democratic voter registrations could be offset by the GOP's abundant absentee ballots.

Obama’s strong showing in swing and formerly red states, gives him a decided advantage. He can reach the 270 threshold by winning Florida or by winning Colorado and Virginia, for example. But until enough of those states to break the 270 threshold are solidly Obama’s, the race remains undecided.

Florida is far from a sure thing for Obama. If the polls are accurate, Obama's lead in Florida approximates the margin of error. (Want to see how the electoral vote is shaking out, look at Real Clear Politics' interactive electoral college map.) Beyond winning the election, Obama needs a mandate to insure his ability to govern effectively and to counter what one writer called the "permanent smear campaign".

Can we relax now that we're ahead in the polls? To quote from an e-mail I just received, "The surest way to lose a race is to slow down with the finish line in sight." Lee went on to remind that Gore had a double digit lead in October 2000 and Kerry won the popular vote in 2004. Without the key states, we could lose the 2008 vote.

Joe Biden said on Thursday... "This campaign has fought for every inch, and now is not the time to take anything for granted. To get out the vote, we need to knock on hundreds of thousands of doors and make even more phone calls. This campaign has built the largest field operation in history, and we need to mobilize it in these remaining days to get every single voter to the polls on Election Day. Because that's what it comes down to -- counting every last vote."

What does this mean for Obama supporters? Florida organizers are focusing on getting out the vote. Live in another state? - the campaign makes it easy to call battleground states. Go to my.barackobama.com and volunteer to help and focus your energy on a battleground state. Barack Obama has built his campaign on grassroots support. THAT MEANS YOU.

Fired UP, Ready TO GO

19 days to go and the fight for Florida is on. Watch these for extra fuel to Make Florida Count.

Looking for a debate wrap-up? - check the debate section in the left column.

Boston Globe Endorsement

This is a good piece to send to undecided voters - excerpts below or full editorial.

COME JANUARY, a new president will take charge of a nation diminished, an America that is far shakier economically, less secure militarily, and less respected internationally than it was eight years before. The nation needs a chief executive who has the temperament and the nerves to shepherd Americans through what promises to be a grueling period — and who has the vision to restore this country to its place of leadership in the world.

Such a leader is at hand. With great enthusiasm, the Globe endorses Senator Barack Obama for president. The charismatic Democrat from Illinois has the ability to channel Americans’ hopes and rally the public together, at a time when the winds are picking up and the clouds keep on darkening...

Obama’s opponent, Senator John McCain, would try to solve all these problems by going back to the same Republican set of tools: tough talk abroad, tax cuts for the richest at home. In contrast, Obama’s presidency would benefit from the Illinois senator’s formidable political gifts.A graduate of Harvard Law School and a former community organizer on Chicago’s South Side, Obama debuted on the national political scene with a dazzling speech at the Democratic National Convention four years ago. Since then, every word of his books and his speeches has been closely parsed. Evident from all that scrutiny is a nimble mind, an ever more impressive grasp of policy detail, and an ability to listen to contradictory viewpoints. Obama is clearly a liberal. But when he led the Harvard Law Review, he won praise from conservative thinkers because he genuinely wanted to hear what they had to say...

...the way Obama has run his campaign has been a marvel of sound management: He laid down principles, put the right people in positions of authority, and spent money strategically. And he has shown a remarkable steadiness. Whether he was far behind Hillary Clinton before the Iowa caucuses or on the verge of locking up the Democratic nomination, whether he was leading or trailing McCain in the general election contest, Obama made the same forward-looking appeal to voters’ best instincts.

As the first black major-party presidential nominee, Obama has strived to make voters comfortable with a ‘‘skinny kid with a funny name.’’ And yet the historical significance of his bid is impossible to ignore. Voters can make no more powerful statement about America’s commitment to inclusion and opportunity than to put forward this man — Barack Hussein Obama, son of a father from Kenya and a mother from Kansas — as the nation’s representative to the world.

An early Obama campaign slogan declared, ‘‘We are the ones we’ve been waiting for.’’ His critics deemed such rhetoric too ethereal. Now it seems prescient, as the nation confronts a financial crisis of historic proportions, as well as all the other policy failures and debt-fueled excesses of the last eight years. The United States has to dig itself out. Barack Obama is the one to lead the way.

Nobel Prize Winners Endorse Obama

Culling Wikipedia's list of Obama endorsements produced four Nobel prize winners in Economics and 62 in the Sciences and Medicine. Wow.

Paul Krugman, winner of this year's award in Economics, has not endorsed a candidate (per NYTimes policy as I understand it) but is a consistent critic of Bush economic policy.

According to the Associated Press, Krugman said the Republicans are becoming "the party of the stupid" and that the economic meltdown made GOP presidential nominee John McCain "more frightening now than he was a few weeks ago."

For a full list of endorsements, see the resource column on the left side of the page.

The Nana and Poppa Vote

As the Great Schlep weekend draws to a close, enjoy an inside look at family politics;

For more video on the Great Schlep, go to CNN.

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